Wird der Tabletmarkt in Subkategorien zerfallen?

Wie wird sich der Tabletmarkt entwickeln? Wir befinden uns aktuell in einer Phase des Experimentierens und des Findungsprozesses.
Forrester:

So far so good; the automotive metaphor seems to have some value for a discussion of tablets. But does this similarity between the automotive industry and the tablet computing market mean that the hardware space is destined to look like the automotive industry? That is, will it break into sub-markets (with “semi-nonsubstitutable” products) in which (for instance) “Sub-Compact Category Captures Almost 5% of Industry Sales” is a key headline? Following an automotive industry pattern, will tablets devolve into micro-niche categories instead of today’s discrete form factors?

The short answer is yes, the tablet market continues to fragment into differentiated niches. We’re undergoing a period of great experimentation in computing – everything from myriad tablet types to furniture PCs to wearable computing devices that run on the same platforms. Tablets will fill more specific enterprise niches; the tablet that works for a flight attendant on an airplane might not be the same tablet best suited for a field engineer climbing a tall electrical tower.

Unterschiedliche Formfaktoren müssen nicht zwingend unterschiedliche Plattformen bedeuten. Ich würde eher vom Gegenteil ausgehen. Sprich also die Anzahl der Formfaktoren pro (Software/Appdistribution/OS-)Plattform werden zunehmen statt abnehmen.

In der kommenden Ausgabe des Exchanges-Podcast von Exciting Commerce sprechen Jochen Krisch und ich auch über den extrem dynamischen Tabletmarkt beziehungsweise den Post-PC-Markt insgesamt.