Facebook hat gute Quartalszahlen vorgelegt. Mit 60% der gesamten(!) Bevölkerung in USA und Kanada auf Facebook erreicht das Social Network langsam natürliche Grenzen in einigen Regionen.
Jan Dawson von Jackdaw Research:
User growth has slowed a little from past rates, but Facebook still adds over 150 million new MAUs every year, and the number’s actually begun to tick up slightly. Engagement stalled a bit this past quarter, as DAUs appeared to plateau at 64%. That was driven by slight declines in Asia and the Rest of World segment, along with flat numbers elsewhere. But it’s a one-quarter phenomenon for now, so we shouldn’t get overly worked up about it. We’ll see what happens next quarter. Engagement is, at any rate, merely a means to an end, as one of two drivers of monetization, which is doing fine. In short, Facebook’s core levers for growth are going well.
Das Spannendste an Facebook ist neben den sehr guten Werbeeinnahmen die sorgfältig und geduldig vorbereiteten (sprich: langfristig ausgerichteten) Strategien, über die Zuckerberg auch im Call gesprochen hat. Dawson:
Perhaps the most heartening thing about Facebook, though, is that it’s been so clear about two things: the strategy behind these products, and the metrics associated with them. The underlying drivers behind both Facebook’s business today and its business tomorrow are clear for all to see, and we’ve just looked at them. You can draw different conclusions about where those trends might be going longer term, but at least you’re looking at the same data Facebook is looking at as an outsider, and especially as an investor.
Das unterscheidet Facebook (oder auch Apple) sehr stark von Google, das wenige aussagekräftige Kennzahlen veröffentlicht:
I’m more worried than anything else about the fact that Google (a) doesn’t provide good enough transparency into the drivers of its current business, and (b) hasn’t articulated a clear vision for how and when its equivalent investments for the future will pay off. It is neither providing outsiders (including investors) with the understanding they need of how its current business will develop, nor is it telling a compelling story about how its business will evolve over time.
Lesenswert in diesem Zusammenhang auch Ben Thompson auf Stratechery (Paywall):
First off, the strategy is very explicit: a Facebook product first acquires users, then it increases engagement, then it increases user value, and only then does it monetize. That final step – the one where all the money is made – is only taken when the audience is as big as can be, as engaged as can be, and as sticky as can be, and at that point, who is going to mind a bunch of advertisements specially customized just for you?
Secondly, the strategy does not simply exist in Zuckerberg’s head: the entire company is organized and aligned according to the strategy, and from that organization incentives follow, significantly increasing the likelihood the strategy is successful
Finally, Zuckerberg has the discipline – and frankly, the luxury, thanks to Facebook’s continued fantastic results – to ensure that each and every product goes through each of these stages in order. Most importantly, that means monetization only happens when the audience is very large, very engaged, and very sticky. And so, while yesterday’s result weren’t as strong as they arguably could have been (especially if the Instagram spigots were fully turned on), in the long run the wait should be worth it.
Zahlen und weitere Anmerkungen:
- Facebook verzeichnet jetzt 3 Milliarden Videoviews pro Tag. Das betrifft nur auf Facebook gehostete Videos, keine verlinkten YouTube-Videos. Gezählt wird allerdings bereits ab 3 Sekunden stummem Autoplay. Eine kleine Videoblase, die allerdings ein deutliches strategisches Signal sendet. Facebook will ein zweites YouTube aufbauen. Auch aus Werbesicht natürlich klug.
- Wenig überraschend machen Facebooks mobile Werbeeinnahmen mittlerweile 69 Prozent der gesamten Werbeeinnahmen aus. Facebook verzeichnet 1,19 Milliarden mobile MAUs. (Erinnert sich noch jemand an die Debatte, Facebook würde den Wandel zu mobile nicht überstehen? Good times.)
- Facebooks Werbegeschäft: 3,6 Milliarden US-Dollar, Wachstum um 53 Prozent gegenüber dem Vorjahresquartal.
- Facebooks mobile Nutzung wächst schneller. Facebook wird bald ein mehrheitlich nur mobile genutztes Angebot sein: “Facebook now has 890 million daily users, 1.19 billion mobile monthly users (up 6.2%), and 745 million daily mobile users (up 5.97%). That means Facebook’s mobile growth rate is actually increasing. Mobile-only users soared to 526 million, up 15.3% QOQ thanks to Facebook’s expanding growth efforts in the developing world where desktop computers are rare.”