TechCrunch setzt die 2 Milliarden aktive monatliche Nutzer in Kontext zu anderen Diensten:
That makes Facebook the largest social app in terms of logged-in users, above YouTube’s 1.5 billion, WeChat’s 889 million, Twitter’s 328 million, and Snapchat’s estimated 255 million (extrapolated from its December 2015 ratio when it had 110 million daily and 170 million monthly users). Beyond YouTube, only Facebook’s other apps have more than 1 billion, including WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger with 1.2 billion each. Instagram might soon join that club as it recently rocketed past 700 million.
Gewachsen ist Facebook die letzten 5 Jahre vor allem in den Entwicklungsländern:
Facebook’s growth the last half decade has been fueled by the developing world. The company has relentlessly optimized its app for cheap Android smartphones and low bandwidth connections. It’s added 746 million users in Asia and the Rest Of World region since hitting 1 billion users total. Meanwhile it only grew from 193 million to 234 million in the US and Canada.
Despite Facebook’s size and age, at 17% its user count is growing as fast or faster than any year since 2012. And people aren’t using it less either. In fact, 66% of Facebook’s monthly users return each day now compared to 55% when it hit 1 billion. If the teenaged social network isn’t as cool to teenagers any more, it’s not showing in the big metrics.
Was uns zur Zukunft von Facebook bringt. Denn nur von da kann die nächste Milliarde kommen. (Europa und Nordamerika ist 'gesättigt', wie man so schön sagt. Sprich, die meisten Menschen sind da bereits Mitglieder.)
Der Branchenanalyst Jan Dawson über Facebook:
One of the most remarkable things about Facebook’s recent growth is that it’s actually been accelerating even as it reaches this massive scale and begins to reach saturation point in mature markets. Even though Facebook’s monthly active user total in the US and Canada is now equivalent to two thirds of the total population (including those too young to use Facebook), it’s still growing there. But by far the largest growth is in Asia and the Rest of the World, and there growth is not just remaining stable but accelerating quite significantly […]
it’s been driven largely by its efforts to expand access in emerging markets. Though that includes Facebook’s Free Basics program, which offers free access to Facebook and limited other Internet services, much bigger contributions have been made by other initiatives, notably Facebook’s own Facebook Lite app for emerging markets, and various mobile operators’ promotional packages for accessing Facebook.
Facebook Lite und die (netzneutralitätsverletzenden) Kooperationen mit lokalen Mobilfunkanbietern, die den Zugriff auf Facebook günstig oder kostenfrei machen, sind massgeblich für das Wachstum von Facebook verantwortlich:
Facebook Lite, on the other hand, has over 200 million users, and those carrier promotional packages haven’t been quantified but I suspect they’re a big contributor too. The big benefit there is that Facebook can’t be accused of seeking to promote its own limited access to the Internet – these are third party plans it has nothing to do with – but the big risk is also its lack of control over those plans, which could theoretically go away at any time, a risk Facebook has explicitly if quietly called out on earnings calls.
Das schafft eine gewisse Abhängigkeit bei Facebook:
That means that expanding Internet access will continue to be critical to Facebook’s future growth, but it will also continue to be heavily reliant on those promotional plans and packages from operators in countries like India. Given that the total number of Internet users worldwide is only around 4 billion, Facebook will need both to improve its penetration of that base and to keep growing it.
Die Mobilfunkanbieter werden Facebook nicht ohne weiteres fallen lassen -Facebook wird schnell groß genug, um zum Hygienefaktor zu werden-, aber Facebook wird sich in diesen und anderen Ländern niemals gegen seine Partner positionieren, sollte es einmal, zum Beispiel, zu netzpolitischen Verwerfungen kommen.
Interessant bleibt, wie niedrig nach wie vor der durchschnittliche Umsatz pro Nutzer in Europa ist:
US and Canada ARPU is now well over $60 per year, while the European number is over $20, but Asia and the Rest of the World come in at well under $10.
Noch etwas wirtschaftshistorischer Kontext von Dawson zum Abschluss:
Lastly, as far as I can tell, Facebook is the first single company and product ever to reach two billion regular users by any reasonable measure. Google famously has several products with over a billion users, while it recently announced that YouTube has 1.5 billion, and Android has 2 billion active devices, which is not quite the same thing. Google search must be close to two billion users, but Facebook appears to have hit the milestone first. That’s indicative of just how ubiquitous Facebook has become, but also how powerful these platforms with a billion-plus devices or users (a number that also includes Microsoft and Apple) have become.
Was auch immer man von ihm halten mag, eins steht fest: Mark Zuckerberg ist nicht nur einer der erfolgreichsten CEOs und Firmengründer unserer Zeit sondern aller Zeiten.
(Zuckerberg kontrolliert nach wie vor die Mehrheit der Stimmrechte im Board von Facebook, kann also theoretisch machen, was er will.)