Facebooks Geschäft

Nachdem Facebook sein SEC-Filing für den anstehenden Börsengang eingereicht hat, kann man endlich einsehen, wie sich das Social Network wirtschaftllich entwickelt hat. Eine der bisher besseren Analysen kommt von Henry Blodget:

Specifically, Facebook is nearly a $4 billion company with nearly a 50 percent operating profit margin growing at better than 75 perecent per year. And, 7 years after its founding in a college dorm room, it is used by about 1/7th of the world’s population.

That is an awesome business, no matter how you look at it. And it’s worth a ton of money.

[..]

Based on Facebook’s size, growth rate, and profitability, a 10X-15X revenue multiple is probably fair.  So that would give you a „fair value“ range of ~$40 billion to $60 billion based on last year’s revenue. Looking forward, you’d get $55-$80 billion based on a reasonable projection for this year’s revenue ($5-$5.5 billion) and $70-$100 billion based on a 2013 revenue estimate ($7 billion).

[..]

Ultimately, Facebook will trade at a similar earnings multiple to where companies like Apple and Google are trading today (15X-20X). The only question is when. So folks who gleefully pay 50X+ earnings for the company had better be VERY confident that Facebook’s earnings growth won’t slow over the next few years.

Eine Bewertung von 100 Milliarden US-Dollar ist seiner Ansicht nach nur gerechtfertigt, wenn man davon ausgeht, dass Facebook in naher Zukunft ein sehr profitables neues Geschäftsfeld aufmacht, das es jetzt noch nicht betreibt. (Facebook Credits für das gesamte Web?)